While it would be premature to talk of a breakthrough in the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project, one can, nevertheless, detect a subtle, positive change in the American attitude.

Along with terrorism, a sinking economy is Pakistan’s biggest problem, and it goes without saying that without addressing the acute energy crisis it would be futile to hope for an economic turnaround. Against this background one should welcome the report by an international task force because it seems to realize the vital role gas from Iran could play in stabilizing Pakistan’s energy situation. Prepared by the Asian Development Bank and Pakistan’s Ministry of Water & Power, with representatives of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan very much in the picture, the energy-sector task force recommended “fast-track cross-border pipelines” to meet Pakistan’s grave energy crisis. The plural -- pipelines -- covers the Turkmenistan-Pakistan pipeline via Afghanistan also. But given the war in Afghanistan and the insurgency in Fata, the task force obviously had the Iran pipeline in mind when it said that gas import via the cross-border pipeline must be available in 2014-15.
The Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline has fallen victim to geopolitics, especially to America’s insistence that commercial transactions with Tehran amount to a violation of the several layers of sanctions the UN, U.S. and the EU have slammed on Iran. India’s withdrawal under American pressure complicated the matter and seemed to jeopardize the entire project. However, it goes to the credit of the governments in Islamabad and Tehran that they have managed to keep the project alive. The key issue is funding, and there are at least two reasons why one can hope money will be coming in. One, the task force consisting of countries which hold the purse strings would not have made a recommendation for “fast-track pipelines” unless they were aware of their obligations. Two, the presence of Mr. Richard Holbrooke on many of the task force’s meetings indicates that the recommendations of the sort made by the task force would not have been possible without America’s nod.
The pipeline project is a decision by two sovereign and neighboring countries to enter into a mutually beneficial enterprise. Iran with its vast gas reserves is in a position to export it. Pakistan’s potential gas reserves have still not been exploited, thus increasing the gap between demand and supply. If the situation is not tackled on a priority basis, then, according to the task force, the gap could increase further, thus making economic recovery virtually impossible. Already, the gap for 2010-2011 stands at 1.3 billion cubic feet per day